Author Topic: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast  (Read 2408 times)

Offline JC

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2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« on: December 01, 2015, 11:39:44 PM »
Well its that time of the year again.
Time to forecast the this winters snow amounts.
First I will post what all the local weather stations are forecasting for this coming winter.

3  KYW  18-24"
6  ABC  20-24"
10 NBC 30-38"
29 FOX 16-22"

most are putting a lot of stock in the El Nino effect, But, If you look at all the years where there was a strong El Nino you will see those year snows vary a great deal, from 1 inch to 36 inches, there is no set pattern of snow fall.

We at JcWeather use many different criteria to determine each winters forecast.
so without further delay we think this winter will bring under 14 inches of snow.
above average Temperatures for December and below average for January and February, March will start off chilly but will be above average at the end of the month.

JcWeather snow totals for the winter of 2015-16 will be less than 14 inches.
we may get most of the 14 on one storm around 6-10 inches at the end of January.
the rest will be an inch or two storms that may end as rain and be washed away.
The chance of a white Christmas I think will be about a 15% chance.

Remember The National Climatic Data Center says:
there has to be a snow depth of at least 1 inch at 7:00 a.m. local time on Christmas morning for it to be a white Christmas.

Have a Merry Christmas everyone and stay warm.
JcWeather Team








Offline vicente6

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2015, 10:49:42 PM »
Thanks for your forecast.  You are usually spot on with what happens.
I am not in the mood for too much snow this year so sounds good for now.

Offline RAD123

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2016, 12:16:49 AM »
Following today's snowfall of 0.3" at PHL International Airport, the seasonal snowfall total over the past ten winters sits at 300.0" (for an average of 30.0" for the period 2006-2007 through 2015-2016).  Although the 1957-58 through 1966-67 winters averaged 29.8" at PHL, the city has not been at the 300" plus level for a ten-year period since 1908-09 through 1917-18 winter seasons when the ten-year average was 30.4". My guess is that the next ten winters will fall below the thirty-year average (1981 - 2010) of 22.4" (as happened in the late 1910s through late 1920s and again in the late 1960s through late 1970s); but then again, with our ongoing and cyclical climate change, anything is possible! 

Offline JC

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2016, 07:45:52 PM »
Nice work, But the last part of your statement is correct, anything is possible with the weather.

Since you brought it up I've added a new data for 5 and 10 year average weather for Temperature, Rain and Snow, you will fine it on the Historical Data menu under "Over Time".
I may add one more, I'll work on it this week.

JC

Offline RAD123

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2016, 12:15:05 AM »
Thanks JC.  You did a great job with your 'Over Time' section (very interesting)!

Offline JC

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2016, 10:06:25 PM »
Hi
It dawned on me later.
Sorry, the snow part of the 5 and 10 year averages will be slightly off kilter, what I did for the averages was add the year totals instead of the seasonal totals, for example I added January to December same year snow totals instead of the seasonal total October to April, I will correct this over the next week and update the program.

I will post here when the program is corrected.

Thanks and Sorry for the programming error.

JC




Offline JC

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Re: 2015 -2016 Winter snow forecast
« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2016, 06:42:40 AM »
Ok
The 5 and 10 year averages files have been corrected and uploaded.
they been double checked and validated with my hard copies.

Thanks
JC