JcWeather

Mid-Atlantic Weather => Philadelphia => Topic started by: JC on January 18, 2016, 01:59:33 PM

Title: Possible large snow storm for end of week ?
Post by: JC on January 18, 2016, 01:59:33 PM
Possible storm this weekend:
The weather models are not on the same page with this yet, as we get closer I will watch the models and post as needed.
The NAM shows next to nothing while the GFS shows over 8 inches.
If you look at my long range forecast you will see I forecasted this storm for the end of January, now lets see if it pans out.

JcWeather
JC

Title: Re: Possible large snow storm for end of week ?
Post by: xyonist on January 19, 2016, 11:08:29 AM
Nice!  Wish it would hold off until Sunday (dinner reservations for my wife's birthday Saturday night)....but I'll take it regardless.  It's a little far out just yet.  I think we'll have a much better idea Thursday morning and going forward.
Title: Re: Possible large snow storm for end of week ?
Post by: JC on January 21, 2016, 06:17:47 AM
Hi All

We are a little over 30 hours now from the start of the storm, All the models are pretty much in sync now and they all have snow totals over 10 inches.
the next 12 to 24 hours will be crucial but I don't see much change happening in the models unless the storm stays further south and moves to far out to sea or takes it's time developing.
Something tells me we aren't going to know the true potential of this storm until it's actually on top of us.
The latest model has the liquid for this storm at 1.50 inches, at a 10-1 ratio that would be 15 inches.

My thinking is, I'm not totally convinced of the amounts that all the weather outlet are giving, I still have a feeling the storm may be to far south for us to get the brunt of it, I've been wrong before, remember last year when all weather outlets were forecasting a major storm and we got 2 inches.
these storms can change in a matter of hours, we should all know that by now. we've been thru enough of them the past five years.

I will know more on the late Thursday(after 6pm) model runs, we will be within 24 hours of the storm by then.

JC